Yuav Ua Li Cas Kawm Txog Kev Ua Ntej Yav Tom Ntej Siv Kev xav Exponential

2024 Tus sau: Malcolm Clapton | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-17 03:58

Yav dhau los, tsis muaj kev hloov pauv ntau dhau los ntawm ib tiam dhau ib tiam, yog li peb tau siv los xav txog linearly. Tab sis tam sim no technology tsis yog evolving linearly, tab sis exponentially. Tus neeg tsim khoom nto moo thiab futurist Raymond Kurzweil hais txog qhov no hauv nws cov haujlwm.

Peb to taub yuam kev yav tom ntej. Peb cov pog koob yawg koob tau xav tias nws yuav zoo ib yam li tam sim no, thiab qhov ntawd, dhau los, xyaum tsis txawv ntawm yav dhau los.

Raymond Kurzweil

Txawm hais tias thev naus laus zis tau hloov zuj zus ntxiv (tus nqi ntawm tus nqi loj hlob yog proportional rau tus nqi ntawd), peb lub hlwb tseem xav txog linearly. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, peb tau tsim qhov pom ntawm lub neej yav tom ntej, zoo ib yam li peb xav txog tus ntaiv: tom qab nce ob peb kauj ruam, peb tuaj yeem xav tias tib cov kauj ruam tos peb ntxiv. Peb ntseeg tias txhua hnub tom ntej no yuav zoo ib yam li yav dhau los.

Tab sis, raws li Kurzweil sau nyob rau hauv nws phau ntawv "The Singularity Is Come" (), thev naus laus zis tau nce nrawm hauv ntau thaj chaw. Qhov no tau ua rau muaj kev vam meej hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis thiab kev sib raug zoo uas kev nkag siab tsis zoo tshwm sim tsis yog ntawm ntau tiam neeg, tab sis kuj nyob rau hauv ib tiam neeg.

Niaj hnub no, lub neej yav tom ntej tsis nthuav tawm linearly, tab sis exponentially, yog li tam sim no nws yog qhov nyuaj dua los twv seb yuav tshwm sim thiab thaum twg raws nraim. Qhov no yog vim li cas qhov ceev ntawm kev kawm txuj ci ua rau peb xav tsis thoob.

Peb tuaj yeem npaj rau lub neej yav tom ntej tshiab li cas yog tias peb siv los xav txawv txawv? Yuav pib nrog, cia peb saib ze dua ntawm qhov kev loj hlob exponential yog dab tsi.

Qhov kev loj hlob exponential yog dab tsi

Tsis zoo li linear kev loj hlob, uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev rov ntxiv tib qhov kom muaj nuj nqis, kev loj hlob exponential yog qhov rov ua dua ntawm qhov ntau. Yog li ntawd, linear kev loj hlob ntawm daim ntawv yuav zoo li ib tug ncaj kab, tsis tu ncua nce upwards, thiab exponential kev loj hlob yuav zoo li ib tug kab nce sharply.

Nov yog lwm txoj hauv kev kom nkag siab zoo dua qhov kev loj hlob exponential yog dab tsi. Xav txog tias koj tab tom taug kev ntawm txoj kev uas muaj qhov ntev ntawm ib 'meter'. Tom qab ua 6 kauj ruam, koj yuav nce mus rau 6 meters (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Tom qab 24 kauj ruam ntxiv, koj yuav nyob 30 meters deb ntawm qhov chaw pib. Nws tsis nyuaj rau twv seb qhov twg koj yuav xaus rau lwm 30 kauj ruam. Qhov no yog lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev loj hlob linear.

Tam sim no xav txog tias koj tuaj yeem muab ob npaug rau qhov ntev ntawm txhua kauj ruam tom ntej. Tom qab ua rau 6 kauj ruam, koj yuav txav mus rau 63 meters, uas yog ntau tshaj li 6 meters uas koj yuav tau taug kev nrog ib txwm kauj ruam.

Tom qab ua 30 kauj ruam, tam sim no koj yuav txav deb ntawm qhov chaw pib los ntawm ib lab meters (ib lab mais) - qhov kev ncua deb no yog sib npaug rau nees nkaum rau lub kiv puag ncig ntawm lub ntiaj teb. Qhov no yog lub zog amazing ntawm exponential kev loj hlob.

Vim li cas ho tsis ntseeg qhov kev kwv yees exponential

Nco ntsoov tias los ntawm kev ua ob npaug ntawm qhov ntev ntawm koj txoj kev taug, koj yuav txav mus rau txhua kauj ruam tom ntej ib qho kev ncua deb sib npaug ntawm tag nrho cov kauj ruam dhau los. Ua ntej koj taug kev ib txhiab meters (qib peb caug), koj yuav nyob ntawm 500 lab meter cim (qib nees nkaum cuaj). Qhov no txhais tau hais tias thawj kauj ruam yuav zoo li me me piv rau qhov kawg. Feem ntau ntawm kev loj hlob yuav tshwm sim nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv.

Qhov no yog vim li cas peb feem ntau tsuas yog tsis pom kev loj hlob exponential nyob rau hauv nws cov theem pib. Qhov ceev ntawm cov txheej txheem no yog deceiving: nws pib maj mam thiab maj mam, thaum xub thawj nws yog ib qhov nyuaj rau paub qhov txawv ntawm linear kev loj hlob. Qhov no yog vim li cas kev twv ua ntej raws li kev loj hlob exponential zoo li zoo kawg.

Thaum cov kws tshawb fawb pib tshawb xyuas tib neeg genome hauv xyoo 1990, ntau tus neeg thuam tau sau tseg tias ntawm tus nqi ntawm qhov kev tshawb fawb tuaj yeem ua tiav, nws yuav siv sijhawm ntau txhiab xyoo los ua tiav qhov project. Txawm li cas los xij, cov kws tshawb fawb tau ua nws txawm tias me ntsis ntxov dua li hnub kawg uas lawv tau teem tseg (15 xyoo). Thawj version yog npaj txhij nyob rau hauv 2003.

Raymond Kurzweil

Yuav exponential kev loj hlob puas yuav xaus

Hauv kev xyaum, kev loj hlob exponential tsis tuaj yeem nyob mus ib txhis, tab sis nws tuaj yeem kav ntev txaus. Ib qho kev nthuav qhia tsis tu ncua muaj xws li kev ua tiav ntawm S-khoov ntawm lub voj voog thev naus laus zis.

Txhua qhov nkhaus no muaj peb theem ntawm kev loj hlob - pib qeeb qeeb, kev loj hlob sai sai thiab theem, thaum cov thev naus laus zis twb tau tsim txaus lawm. Cov nkhaus no yog superimposed rau ib leeg. Thaum txoj kev loj hlob ntawm ib lub tshuab qeeb qeeb, kev loj hlob ntawm lwm qhov nrawm. Thiab txhua zaus nws yuav siv sij hawm tsawg thiab tsawg kom mus txog qib siab ntawm kev ua tau zoo.

Kurzweil teev tsib lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb hauv lub xyoo pua 20th:

• electromechanics;
• relay;
• xov tooj cua raj;
• discrete transistors;
• integrated circuits.

Thaum ib lub tshuab siv nws lub peev xwm tag, tus tom ntej tuaj hloov nws.

Yuav npaj li cas rau yav tom ntej

Npaj kom muaj kev xav tsis thoob.

Piv txwv li, tsib xyoos tom ntej yuav zoo li cas? Ib txoj hauv kev niaj hnub los kwv yees lub neej yav tom ntej yog nco ntsoov tsib xyoos dhau los thiab xav txog tias cov xwm txheej ntxiv yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov qub. Tab sis tam sim no nws yuav tsis ua hauj lwm lawm, vim hais tias kev loj hlob ceev heev hloov. Yuav muaj, qhov koj xav tias yuav tshwm sim hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no yuav tshwm sim hauv peb xyoos.

Rau kev xav exponential, nws tsis yog ntau yam kev npaj tshwj xeeb uas tseem ceeb (koj twb paub yuav ua li cas npaj), tab sis muaj peev xwm los xam lub sij hawm kom raug. Thiab rau qhov no peb yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias peb lub hlwb nyiam xav linearly thiab kho lawv cov phiaj xwm rau yav tom ntej exponential.

Yog vim li cas kev kawm xav exponentially tseem ceeb

Peb lub hlwb xav linearly tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau rau peb. Txoj kev xav ua rau tsis yog rau tib neeg nkaus xwb, tab sis rau kev lag luam thiab tsoomfwv kom raug ntes los ntawm cov xwm txheej exponential.

Cov tuam txhab loj raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov neeg sib tw uas tsis tau npaj txhij, thiab peb txhua tus txhawj xeeb tias peb lub neej yav tom ntej yuav rov qab los ntawm kev tswj hwm. Kev xav exponentially yuav pab koj tshem tawm cov kev txhawj xeeb no thiab ntsib lub neej yav tom ntej muaj riam phom tag nrho.